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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
Sunday 2022-12-18 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -14.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

KC
78.6%
HOU
21.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.199 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.213 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Davis Mills (HOU) -0.115 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.262 EPA/dropback
  • HOU defense: +0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

KC 28
–
HOU 19
Projected margin: KC by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

KC

Chris Jones DT Questionable Illness
Kadarius Toney WR Questionable Hamstring

HOU

Nico Collins WR Out Foot
Steven Nelson CB Out Foot
Dameon Pierce RB Out Ankle
Taylor Stallworth DT Out Calf
Derek Stingley CB Out Hamstring
Brandin Cooks WR Out Calf
Kenyon Green G Out Ankle
Justin McCray C Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 30
–
HOU 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:04 TD HOU (1:04) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 84-T.Quitoriano for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – HOU 6
  • Q2 12:33 TD KC (12:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – HOU 7
  • Q2 09:28 TD HOU (9:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – HOU 13
  • Q2 00:17 TD KC (:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – HOU 14
  • Q3 09:08 FG KC (9:08) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 16 – HOU 14
  • Q3 01:30 TD HOU (1:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 88-J.Akins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-50-W.Gay, Illegal Contact, declined. KC 16 – HOU 20
  • Q4 12:05 TD KC (12:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 22 – HOU 21
  • Q4 05:14 FG HOU (5:14) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. KC 24 – HOU 24
  • Q5 05:19 TD KC (5:19) 1-J.McKinnon left guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 30 – HOU 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:17) 11-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to KC 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-38-J.Francis.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 30%

    (9:57) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to HOU 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-D.King to HOU 15 for 3 yards (47-D.Harris; 13-N.Johnson).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:34) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to KC 37, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-K.Toney to KC 40 for 3 yards (22-W.Redmond).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 14 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:54) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to HOU 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-D.King to HOU 20 for 13 yards (43-J.Cochrane).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:52) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to KC 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-K.Toney to KC 22 for 5 yards (53-B.Cashman).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:38) 5-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to HOU 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 1-T.Smith ran ob at HOU 22 for 7 yards (45-M.Burton; 29-C.Lammons).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 35%

    (4:13) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to KC 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-K.Toney. PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at KC 6.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 98%

    (9:08) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:50) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to KC 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (5:14) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 12 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 75%

    (:12) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.