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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to HOU 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-D.King to HOU 20 for 13 yards (43-J.Cochrane).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.45 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model