4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 61

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 11-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to KC 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-38-J.Francis.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.15 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 20, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model