Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 65

Houston Texans 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(9:52) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to KC 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-K.Toney to KC 22 for 5 yards (53-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.83 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model