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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 52

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to HOU 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-D.King to HOU 15 for 3 yards (47-D.Harris; 13-N.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.73 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -3.16 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP