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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 5-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to HOU 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 1-T.Smith ran ob at HOU 22 for 7 yards (45-M.Burton; 29-C.Lammons).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP