Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 75

Houston Texans 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

(8:50) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to KC 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model