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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 50

Houston Texans 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to KC 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-K.Toney. PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at KC 6.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.78 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP