4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 8

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 8, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP