4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
BAL Away

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Saturday 2022-12-17 · 16:30 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌨 Snow Spread 2.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

BAL
53.9%
CLE
46.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.147 vs Tyler Huntley (BAL) -0.116 EPA/dropback
  • CLE defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 21
–
CLE 19
Projected margin: BAL by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

BAL

Lamar Jackson QB Out Knee
Morgan Moses T Questionable Knee
Jordan Stout P Questionable right Knee
Kevin Zeitler G Questionable Knee

CLE

David Bell WR Questionable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 3
–
CLE 13

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:15 FG CLE (14:15) 3-C.York 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 0 – CLE 3
  • Q2 05:36 FG BAL (5:36) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 3 – CLE 3
  • Q2 01:55 FG CLE (1:55) 3-C.York 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 3 – CLE 6
  • Q3 02:14 TD CLE (2:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 3 – CLE 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to BAL 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 15. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 22 for 7 yards (56-T.Davis).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (6:58) 42-P.Ricard right guard to CLE 7 for no gain (43-J.Johnson, 90-J.Clowney).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

    (14:15) 3-C.York 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:14) 11-J.Stout punts 41 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:04) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 38, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 64%

    (5:36) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (1:55) 3-C.York 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%

    (3:41) 70-D.Forbes reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard to BAL 7 for 2 yards (18-R.Smith).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 17 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 32%

    (:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to BAL 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 73%

    (14:08) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-J.Elliott), Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout, recovered by BAL-9-J.Tucker at BAL 48.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 90%

    (10:52) 3-C.York 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:34) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Proche.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 58%

    (7:28) 7-J.Brissett left guard to BAL 34 for 3 yards (18-R.Smith).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 81%

    (4:29) 3-C.York 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 13 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:10) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Proche (21-D.Ward).