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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 7

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 42-P.Ricard right guard to CLE 7 for no gain (43-J.Johnson, 90-J.Clowney).

The Three Options

GO +3.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.51 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 7, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model