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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Proche (21-D.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.38 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -1.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model