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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 85

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 38, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.26 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 85, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model