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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 54

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 11-J.Stout punts 41 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.66 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP