4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 54

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(9:34) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.65 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model