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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 20

Cleveland Browns 13 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 3-C.York 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP