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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 85

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to BAL 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 15. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 22 for 7 yards (56-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.26 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 85, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 43, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model