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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 13 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 3-C.York 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.65 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model