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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2022-12-11 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

TB
38.9%
SF
61.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample
  • TB offense: +0.011 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
SF 26
Projected margin: SF by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

TB

Mike Edwards S Doubtful Hamstring
Antoine Winfield S Doubtful Ankle
Tristan Wirfs T Doubtful Ankle
Leonard Fournette RB Questionable Foot
Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Foot
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Questionable Quadricep

SF

Jimmy Garoppolo QB Out Foot
Tarvarius Moore S Out Knee
Hassan Ridgeway DT Out Pectoral
Nick Bosa DE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 7
–
SF 35

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:33 TD SF (12:33) 19-D.Samuel right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD SF (15:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – SF 13
  • Q2 07:55 TD SF (7:55) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-A.Hicks]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TB 0 – SF 20
  • Q2 00:22 TD SF (:22) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Senat]. 4 YAC TB 0 – SF 27
  • Q3 14:09 TD SF (14:09) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – SF 34
  • Q3 02:56 TD TB (2:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 17-R.Gage for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ball was deflected off TB 14 Godwin and caught by TB 17 Gage 0 YAC The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TB 6 – SF 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 61%

    (8:14) 3-R.Succop 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:37) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to TB 19, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 30 for 11 yards (44-K.Juszczyk). FUMBLES (44-K.Juszczyk), ball out of bounds at TB 33.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:53) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to SF 25, Center-97-Z.Triner. 3-R.McCloud to SF 38 for 13 yards (41-K.Kieft).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:23) 5-J.Camarda punts 61 yards to SF 14, Center-97-Z.Triner. 3-R.McCloud to SF 29 for 15 yards (29-R.White).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:57) 5-J.Camarda punts 51 yards to SF 19, Center-97-Z.Triner. 3-R.McCloud to SF 34 for 15 yards (52-K.Britt).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%

    (2:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Evans.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 59%

    (10:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 7-L.Fournette to SF 33 for 5 yards (1-J.Ward). 0 YAC

  • Q3 SF 4th & 12 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:25) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 62 yards to TB 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 26 for 10 yards (30-G.Odum).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 71%

    (4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at SF 24 for 9 yards (31-T.Gipson). 2 YAC

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 56%

    (13:41) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 31 yards to TB 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-89-C.Woerner.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans to SF 48 for 20 yards (31-T.Gipson). 0 YAC

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 56%

    (9:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-L.Fournette left guard to SF 37 for 2 yards (91-A.Armstead; 96-T.McGill).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 66%

    (8:44) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Evans (95-D.Jackson).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 69%

    (4:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Johnson pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Jennings (94-C.Nassib).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:38) (No Huddle) 29-R.White up the middle to TB 40 for -3 yards (1-J.Ward). FUMBLES (1-J.Ward), touched at TB 43, RECOVERED by SF-51-A.Al-Shaair at TB 37. 51-A.Al-Shaair to TB 32 for 5 yards (88-C.Otton; 14-C.Godwin).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 79%

    (1:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Johnson pass short left to 6-D.Gray to TB 19 for 10 yards (27-Z.McCollum). 4 YAC