4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 5-J.Camarda punts 51 yards to SF 19, Center-97-Z.Triner. 3-R.McCloud to SF 34 for 15 yards (52-K.Britt).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.76 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model