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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 5-J.Camarda punts 61 yards to SF 14, Center-97-Z.Triner. 3-R.McCloud to SF 29 for 15 yards (29-R.White).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.50 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 32, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP