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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 33

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 35

What Actually Happened

(4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at SF 24 for 9 yards (31-T.Gipson). 2 YAC

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.84 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model