Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 78

San Francisco 49ers 35 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(7:25) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 62 yards to TB 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 26 for 10 yards (30-G.Odum).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.70 EP
64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model