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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 35

What Actually Happened

(3:38) (No Huddle) 29-R.White up the middle to TB 40 for -3 yards (1-J.Ward). FUMBLES (1-J.Ward), touched at TB 43, RECOVERED by SF-51-A.Al-Shaair at TB 37. 51-A.Al-Shaair to TB 32 for 5 yards (88-C.Otton; 14-C.Godwin).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model