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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 35 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Johnson pass short left to 6-D.Gray to TB 19 for 10 yards (27-Z.McCollum). 4 YAC

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.39 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP