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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 39

San Francisco 49ers 35 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 31 yards to TB 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-89-C.Woerner.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.62 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP