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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 37

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 3-R.Succop 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.07 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model