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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2022-12-04 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

JAX
47.8%
DET
52.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET defense: +0.153 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): +0.128 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET on 3 more days rest than JAX

Predicted Final Score

JAX 23
–
DET 24
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

JAX

Darrell Henderson RB Questionable Illness
Andre Cisco S Questionable Shoulder
Travis Etienne RB Questionable Foot
Zay Jones WR Questionable Chest

DET

Evan Brown G Out Ankle
Julian Okwara LB Out Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 14
–
DET 40

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:58 TD DET (10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 07:46 FG JAX (7:46) 10-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – DET 7
  • Q1 04:09 TD DET (4:09) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – DET 13
  • Q2 12:44 FG DET (12:44) 17-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. JAX 3 – DET 17
  • Q2 07:02 FG DET (7:02) 17-M.Badgley 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. JAX 3 – DET 20
  • Q2 04:19 FG JAX (4:19) 10-R.Patterson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 6 – DET 20
  • Q2 00:34 FG DET (:34) 17-M.Badgley 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. JAX 6 – DET 23
  • Q3 10:43 TD DET (10:43) (No Huddle) 32-D.Swift right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – DET 29
  • Q3 02:58 TD JAX (2:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-E.Engram for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – DET 30
  • Q4 12:25 FG DET (12:25) 17-M.Badgley 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. JAX 14 – DET 33
  • Q4 02:47 TD DET (2:47) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – DET 39

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 73%

    (9:39) 39-J.Agnew right end pushed ob at DET 31 for 3 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (7:46) 10-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 47%

    (1:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 30 yards to DET 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 86%

    (12:44) 17-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to DET 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 11 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 82%

    (7:02) 17-M.Badgley 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (4:19) 10-R.Patterson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 92%

    (:34) 17-M.Badgley 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:37) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end ran ob at DET 44 for 12 yards (39-J.Jacobs).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 95%

    (4:54) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to DET 13 for 2 yards (94-B.Jones; 54-A.McNeill).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 12 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%

    (12:25) 17-M.Badgley 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to DET 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-K.Raymond to DET 32 for 9 yards (6-C.Claybrooks, 46-R.Matiscik).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (:59) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short left to 89-L.Farrell to JAX 31 for 3 yards (34-A.Anzalone, 36-C.Lucas).