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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 39-J.Agnew right end pushed ob at DET 31 for 3 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.62 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model