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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 12 at the 26
Detroit Lions 30 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14
What Actually Happened
(12:25) 17-M.Badgley 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The Three Options
GO
+0.67 EP
-
29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.04 EP
- 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.11 EP
KICK
+1.37 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
- 14% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT
-0.22 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
