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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Detroit Lions 40

What Actually Happened

(:59) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short left to 89-L.Farrell to JAX 31 for 3 yards (34-A.Anzalone, 36-C.Lucas).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.76 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP