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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 2 at the 20
Detroit Lions 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6
What Actually Happened
(:34) 17-M.Badgley 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The Three Options
GO
+2.35 EP
Model's Pick
-
57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.33 EP
- 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 20, worth -0.29 EP
KICK
+2.29 EP
What Happened
- 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
- 8% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT
-0.07 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
