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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Detroit Lions 30

What Actually Happened

(7:37) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end ran ob at DET 44 for 12 yards (39-J.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.19 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model