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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 15

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Detroit Lions 30

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to DET 13 for 2 yards (94-B.Jones; 54-A.McNeill).

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.08 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model