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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 77

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Detroit Lions 33

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to DET 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-K.Raymond to DET 32 for 9 yards (6-C.Claybrooks, 46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model