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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 24

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 10-R.Patterson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.53 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model