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New Orleans Saints

4-8 HC Dennis Allen
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San Francisco 49ers

7-4 HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2022-11-27 · 16:25 ET Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NO
33.7%
SF
66.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.198 vs Andy Dalton (NO) -0.012 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: +0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NO 22 15–29
–
SF 28 21–35
Projected margin: SF by 6 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 12

NO

J.T. Gray S Out Hamstring
Payton Turner DE Out Ankle
Pete Werner LB Out Ankle
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Illness
Marcus Davenport DE Questionable Calf
Mark Ingram RB Questionable Knee
Cameron Jordan DE Questionable Eye
Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Abdomen
Andrus Peat G Questionable Triceps

SF

Arik Armstead DT Doubtful Foot
Deebo Samuel WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 0
–
SF 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 37 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:05 FG SF (8:05) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. NO 0 – SF 3
  • Q2 00:19 TD SF (:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC NO 0 – SF 9
  • Q3 10:30 FG SF (10:30) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. NO 0 – SF 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 97%

    (9:37) (No Huddle) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to NO 9 for 1 yard (56-D.Davis, 92-M.Davenport).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (8:05) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:52) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to SF 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 3-R.McCloud to SF 17 for 7 yards (36-I.Yiadom, 17-K.White).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:12) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to NO 11, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 50%

    (14:25) 4-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to SF 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-17-K.White.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:33) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NO 40, Center-46-T.Pepper. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 47 for 7 yards (30-G.Odum). PENALTY on SF-26-S.Womack, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 47.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 14 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 53%

    (9:27) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Prentice, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (3:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at NO 2 for -1 yards (99-S.Tuttle).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to SF 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 3-R.McCloud to SF 43 for 11 yards (46-A.Prentice).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 11 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 83%

    (10:30) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 80%

    (4:11) 3-W.Lutz 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:58) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NO 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:45) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to 50, Center-46-T.Pepper. 89-R.Shaheed ran ob at SF 39 for 11 yards (33-T.Moore).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (6:23) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at SF 11 for -7 yards (97-N.Bosa).

    See the full breakdown →