Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to SF: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.198 vs Andy Dalton (NO) -0.012 EPA/dropback
- SF offense: +0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- NO offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- NO defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
NO
SF
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 37 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:05 FG SF (8:05) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. NO 0 – SF 3
- Q2 00:19 TD SF (:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC NO 0 – SF 9
- Q3 10:30 FG SF (10:30) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. NO 0 – SF 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 10Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 97%
(9:37) (No Huddle) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to NO 9 for 1 yard (56-D.Davis, 92-M.Davenport).
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Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%
(8:05) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EPp(convert) 71%
(5:52) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to SF 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 3-R.McCloud to SF 17 for 7 yards (36-I.Yiadom, 17-K.White).
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Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(2:12) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to NO 11, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.
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Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 50%
(14:25) 4-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to SF 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-17-K.White.
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Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(10:33) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NO 40, Center-46-T.Pepper. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 47 for 7 yards (30-G.Odum). PENALTY on SF-26-S.Womack, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 47.
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Q2 NO 4th & 14 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 53%
(9:27) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Prentice, Touchback.
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Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(3:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at NO 2 for -1 yards (99-S.Tuttle).
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Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 89Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EPp(convert) 74%
(2:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to SF 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 3-R.McCloud to SF 43 for 11 yards (46-A.Prentice).
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Q3 SF 4th & 11 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 83%
(10:30) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 80%
(4:11) 3-W.Lutz 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
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Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 56%
(1:58) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NO 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.
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Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(9:45) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to 50, Center-46-T.Pepper. 89-R.Shaheed ran ob at SF 39 for 11 yards (33-T.Moore).
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Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(6:23) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at SF 11 for -7 yards (97-N.Bosa).