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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to SF 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 3-R.McCloud to SF 17 for 7 yards (36-I.Yiadom, 17-K.White).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.20 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP