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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:37) (No Huddle) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to NO 9 for 1 yard (56-D.Davis, 92-M.Davenport).

The Three Options

GO +3.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.53 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model