Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NO 40, Center-46-T.Pepper. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 47 for 7 yards (30-G.Odum). PENALTY on SF-26-S.Womack, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 47.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.51 EP
61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 83, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model