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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 95

San Francisco 49ers 13 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to 50, Center-46-T.Pepper. 89-R.Shaheed ran ob at SF 39 for 11 yards (33-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.36 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 95, worth -5.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.83 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 53, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model