4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 89

New Orleans Saints 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to SF 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 3-R.McCloud to SF 43 for 11 yards (46-A.Prentice).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.35 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.53 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP