4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:25) 4-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to SF 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-17-K.White.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.11 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP