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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 55

San Francisco 49ers 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to NO 11, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.17 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model