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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New Orleans Saints
4th & 4 at the 4
New Orleans Saints 0 – San Francisco 49ers 13
What Actually Happened
(6:23) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at SF 11 for -7 yards (97-N.Bosa).
The Three Options
GO
+2.41 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
- 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.05 EP
KICK
+1.79 EP
- 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
- 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT
-0.43 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
