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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2022-11-27 · 20:20 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

GB
32.0%
PHI
68.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PHI: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.132 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) -0.035 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Wind 24 mph
  • GB offense: -0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • GB on 3 more days rest than PHI

Predicted Final Score

GB 19
–
PHI 25
Projected margin: PHI by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

GB

Romeo Doubs WR Out Ankle
De'Vondre Campbell LB Doubtful Knee
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Knee
Shemar Jean-Charles CB Questionable Ankle

PHI

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 33
–
PHI 40

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:25 TD PHI (11:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 09:08 TD PHI (9:08) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – PHI 13
  • Q1 06:51 TD GB (6:51) 28-A.Dillon left guard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – PHI 13
  • Q1 03:16 TD GB (3:16) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – PHI 13
  • Q2 15:00 TD PHI (15:00) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – PHI 19
  • Q2 07:50 TD GB (7:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 33-A.Jones for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – PHI 20
  • Q2 00:19 TD PHI (:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 16-Q.Watkins for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – PHI 26
  • Q3 07:23 TD PHI (7:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – PHI 33
  • Q3 02:06 FG GB (2:06) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 23 – PHI 34
  • Q4 11:14 FG PHI (11:14) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. GB 23 – PHI 37
  • Q4 09:10 TD GB (9:10) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 29 – PHI 37
  • Q4 02:21 FG PHI (2:21) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. GB 30 – PHI 40
  • Q4 01:11 FG GB (1:11) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 33 – PHI 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:06) 1-J.Hurts FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 37, recovered by PHI-26-M.Sanders at PHI 37. 26-M.Sanders to PHI 37 for no gain (29-R.Douglas).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 64%

    (3:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to PHI 11 for 21 yards (23-C.Gardner-Johnson). PHI-23-C.Gardner-Johnson was injured during the play. He is Out. Penalty on PHI-43-K.White, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:55) 8-A.Siposs punts 52 yards to GB 18, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 14 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:22) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to PHI 29, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%

    (:54) 1-J.Hurts right guard to GB 35 for 4 yards (29-R.Douglas).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 12 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:50) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to PHI 14, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-35-C.Ballentine. PHI-48-P.Johnson was injured during the play.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (2:06) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 56%

    (13:26) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts left guard to GB 33 for 2 yards (31-A.Amos; 91-P.Smith).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (11:14) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 53%

    (2:21) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 93%

    (1:11) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.