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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(13:26) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts left guard to GB 33 for 2 yards (31-A.Amos; 91-P.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.74 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model