Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

(12:50) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to PHI 14, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-35-C.Ballentine. PHI-48-P.Johnson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.11 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model