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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.84 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model