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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 1-J.Hurts FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 37, recovered by PHI-26-M.Sanders at PHI 37. 26-M.Sanders to PHI 37 for no gain (29-R.Douglas).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.31 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model